Liver metastasis from duodenopancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (DP-NENs) is a major cause of mortality in multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1) patients, yet much of their natural history is unknown.

This longitudinal, retrospective cohort study analyzed all MEN1 patients with imageable functional (F) and nonfunctional (NF) DP-NENs (1990–2021) for liver metastasis-free survival (LMFS) and overall survival (OS).

Of 138 patients, 85 (61.6%) had imageable DP-NENs (28 F, 57 NF), and the mean largest tumor size was 1.8 ± 1.4 cm. Multifocality was present in 32 patients (37.7%). Surgery was performed for 49 patients (57.7%). During an 11-year median follow-up period (IQR, 6–17 years), 23 (27.1%) of the patients had liver metastasis, and 19 (22.4%) patients died. Death was attributed to liver metastasis in 60% of cases. The patients with F-DP-NENs versus NF-DP-NENs more often had liver metastasis (46.4% vs. 15.8%; p = 0.002) but had similar 10-year LMFS (80.9 vs. 87.0%; p = 0.44) and OS (82.7 vs. 94.3%; p = 0.69). The patients with NF-DP-NENs had surgery when their tumors were larger (p < 0.001). Tumor size was not associated with liver metastasis (p = 0.89). The average growth rate was 0.04 cm/year (SE, 0.02 cm/year; p = 0.01) during active surveillance for NF-DP-NENs (n = 38). Liver metastasis developed in four patients with tumors smaller than 2 cm. The risk of liver metastasis was independent of surgery (hazard ratio [HR], 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21–2.93; p = 0.72) and death (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.08–3.06; p = 0.46).

Although the observed outcomes in this study were better than historical data, small NF-DP-NENs still developed liver metastasis and liver metastasis remains a major cause of death. These results suggest that size as a sole criterion for surgery may be insufficient to predict tumor behavior.