The impact of COVID-19 is still felt around the world, and more information is needed regarding infection risk, vaccination responses, and the timing of booster vaccinations. We aimed to evaluate the association of vaccination with closely followed, longitudinal antibody titers and COVID-19 infection events. We conducted a natural history study in a convenience cohort in an ambulatory research unit. We measured anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike antibody levels every 3 months for 1 year and captured weekly reports of medically confirmed COVID-19 infections. We analyzed the association of antibody titers with infection events as well as the association of the decision to receive vaccination with social, medical, and behavioral characteristics. 629 subjects were followed for 1 year, and 82.8% of them were vaccinated. 90 cases of medically confirmed COVID-19 infection were reported. Notable findings from our study include: an association of vaccination choice with social distancing, a qualitatively different anti-spike response in participants receiving the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine compared to those receiving mRNA vaccines, a muted anti-nucleocapsid response in breakthrough infections compared to unvaccinated infections, and the identification of a low antibody titer threshold associated with the risk of breakthrough infections. We conclude that, in a real-life setting, vaccination and social distancing behavior are positively correlated. The observed effect of vaccination in preventing COVID-19 may include both vaccine-mediated protection and the associated more cautious behavior exhibited by vaccinated individuals. In addition, we identified an antibody threshold associated with breakthrough infections in mRNA vaccinees, and this threshold may be used in medical decision-making regarding the timing of booster vaccinations. Therefore, our data may aid in the refinement of vaccination strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

IMPORTANCE The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact societies and health care systems worldwide and is continuously evolving. Immunity via vaccination or prior infection is the first and most important line of defense against COVID-19. We still do not have complete information on how vaccination-induced or infection-induced antibody titers change with time or on how this information can be used to guide decisions regarding booster vaccination. In a longitudinal observational study of a cohort of 629 subjects, 82% of breakthrough infections in vaccinees occurred when their anti-spike antibody titers were below 3,000 AU/mL. Our findings suggest that there may be an antibody threshold associated with breakthrough infections and that this threshold could possibly be used to aid decision-making regarding booster vaccinations. In addition, the use of anti-nucleocapsid antibody tiers may significantly underestimate the prevalence of breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals.