The risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in patients with non-dysplastic Barrett’s esophagus (NDBE) is low, so there is debate over the role of ongoing surveillance for patients with NDBE. It is important to identify patients at low risk for progression. We assessed cancer risk based on the subsequent number of endoscopies showing persistence of NDBE in a nationwide study in the Netherlands.

In a population-based study, patients with a first diagnosis of NDBE were selected from the Dutch nationwide registry of histopathology. We calculated incidence rates and incidence rate ratios (IRR) for high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and EAC to determine whether the number of endoscopies negative for dysplasia and the persistence of NDBE over time associate with progression to malignancy.

We identified 12,728 patients with NDBE during 2003 and 2013. HGD or EAC developed in 436 patients (3.4%) during 64,537 person-years of follow up (median, 4.9 years). The rate of progression to HGD or EAC was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.61–0.74) per 100 person-years. In patients with 2 consecutive endoscopies showing NDBE, the rate of progression to HGD or EAC decreased to 0.55 (95% CI, 0.46–0.64) per 100 person-years (IRR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.60–0.87). Overall, the incidence of HGD or EAC decreased by 14% for each year of progression-free follow-up (IRR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81–0.92).

In a population-based study in the Netherlands, we found patients with stable NDBE to have a low risk of progression to HGD or EAC. These findings indicate that surveillance intervals might be lengthened or even discontinued in subgroups patients with persistent NDBE.