Raised circulating adipocyte fatty acid–binding protein (AFABP) concentrations are associated with various adverse health conditions. However, their relationship with mortality remains to be defined, especially in view of the sexual dimorphism of circulating AFABP concentrations. Here we investigated prospectively whether serum AFABP concentrations predict multiple mortality outcomes in men and women alike, using a large clinic-based cohort of individuals with type 2 diabetes, a condition with raised AFABP concentrations.

Baseline serum AFABP concentrations were measured in 5305 research participants with a monoclonal antibody-based sandwich immunoassay. The role of circulating AFABP concentrations in predicting mortality outcomes was evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analysis.

Among the 5305 participants (59% men) in this study, over a median follow-up of 5 years, there were 512 deaths (19.3 deaths per 1000 person-years). Circulating AFABP concentrations, with higher levels in women at baseline, predicted all-cause mortality (P < 0.001), cardiovascular mortality (P = 0.037), and infection-related deaths (P < 0.002) among all participants. In sex-specific analyses, circulating AFABP concentration was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in both men and women and a predictor of cancer-related deaths and infection-related deaths in men only. Furthermore, the addition of serum AFABP concentrations improved the time-dependent c statistics in predicting all-cause mortality in participants with type 2 diabetes (P = 0.008).

Circulating AFABP concentration was an independent predictor of various mortality outcomes in type 2 diabetes over and above known risk factors of reduced survival in men and women. The role of AFABP as a prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target warrants further investigation.