[HTML][HTML] High contagiousness and rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2

S Sanche, YT Lin, C Xu… - Emerging infectious …, 2020 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Emerging infectious diseases, 2020ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing
coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in
Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days
and a basic reproductive number (R 0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case
reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation
period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the …
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R 0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R 0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov