Precore (PC) variant (G1896A) and basal core promoter (BCP) variant (A1762T/G1764A) of HBV are associated with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in HBV carriers. However, little is known about their impact on the adverse outcomes of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative hepatitis and liver cirrhosis.

251 spontaneous HBeAg seroconverters who had genotype B or C infection and received a long-term follow-up were enrolled. PC and BCP mutants were determined qualitatively and quantitatively to correlate with these adverse outcomes. The findings were validated by an independent case–control study, which included 184 patients with biopsy-proven liver fibrosis stages.

In the longitudinal cohort study, BCP mutant and possibly PC wild type were associated with cirrhosis development, but not HBeAg-negative hepatitis. Multivariable analysis showed that only BCP mutant was an independent risk factor for cirrhosis development. Using quantitative analysis of BCP mutant, a higher proportion of BCP mutant, defined as a continuous variable, a dichotomous variable or an ordinal variable, was associated with a higher risk of cirrhosis. If we chose 45% of BCP mutant as the cut-off, the risk of cirrhosis was higher in patients with BCP mutant ≥45% compared to <45% in the longitudinal cohort; this finding was validated by the case–control study (adjusted OR: 2.81, 95% CI 1.40 to 5.67).

A higher proportion of BCP mutant increases the risk of liver cirrhosis development in HBV carriers with genotype B or C infection.